Head-to-head evidence

orforglipron vs semaglutide

Same mechanism, same race: design-graded trial evidence for both assets, with the grading rationale shown. Grades describe the quality of the evidence, never the merits of either security.

Obesity

Shared mechanism: GLP-1 receptor · full Obesity pipeline

orforglipron · Foundayo

Marketed by Eli Lilly

Approved in Obesitysmall molecule
Partial signal

NCT05803421 · Phase 3 · completed

The study is randomized and active-controlled with a large sample of 2,749 participants, but it is open-label rather than blinded. Its primary endpoint is a hard clinical cardiovascular outcome; however, the comparison cannot be judged because no results are currently available.

Next expected readout: February 2027 · NCT06672549 (registry estimate)

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semaglutide · Wegovy / Ozempic / Rybelsus

Marketed by Novo Nordisk

Approved in Obesitypeptide
Reliable signal

NCT03548935 · Phase 3 · completed

This was a randomized, quadruple-blind, placebo-controlled trial of 1,961 participants. At week 68, mean body-weight change was -15.6% with semaglutide versus -2.8% with placebo, and the primary comparison was statistically significant (p<0.0001), supporting strong evidence for this clinical weight-loss endpoint.

Next expected readout: October 2026 · NCT07505303 (registry estimate)

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Type 2 Diabetes

Shared mechanism: GLP-1 receptor · full Type 2 Diabetes pipeline

orforglipron · Foundayo

Marketed by Eli Lilly

Phase 3 in Type 2 Diabetessmall molecule
Partial signal

NCT05803421 · Phase 3 · completed

The study is randomized and active-controlled with a large sample of 2,749 participants, but it is open-label rather than blinded. Its primary endpoint is a hard clinical cardiovascular outcome; however, the comparison cannot be judged because no results are currently available.

Next expected readout: May 2027 · NCT07613307 (registry estimate)

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semaglutide · Wegovy / Ozempic / Rybelsus

Marketed by Novo Nordisk

Approved in Type 2 Diabetespeptide
Reliable signal

NCT01720446 · Phase 3 · completed

This was a large randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with 1,648 participants receiving semaglutide and 1,649 receiving placebo. The hard clinical primary endpoint, first major adverse cardiovascular event, occurred in 6.6% versus 8.9% of participants; the prespecified non-inferiority comparison was met (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.58–0.95, p<0.0001), and a post hoc superiority analysis was statistically significant (p=0.0167).

Next expected readout: November 2026 · NCT07570810 (registry estimate)

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Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Shared mechanism: GLP-1 receptor · full Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease pipeline

orforglipron · Foundayo

Marketed by Eli Lilly

Phase 3 in Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Diseasesmall molecule
not yet graded

No graded featured trial for this indication yet; the grade above reflects that absence, not a judgment.

Next expected readout: June 2028 · NCT07223593 (registry estimate)

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semaglutide · Wegovy / Ozempic / Rybelsus

Marketed by Novo Nordisk

Approved in Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Diseasepeptide
Reliable signal

NCT04560998 · Phase 3 · completed

This randomized, quadruple-blind, placebo-controlled trial in nearly 800 people measured walking distance on a standardized treadmill test, a direct functional outcome for peripheral artery disease, and found a statistically significant improvement with semaglutide over placebo.

Next expected readout: September 2028 · NCT07617155 (registry estimate)

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The full competitive landscape for each asset (every same-race competitor with aligned evidence, sortable) is on the asset pages: orforglipron's landscape · semaglutide's landscape